Water Conflict

Introduction to water conflicts

Water is a finite resource and its management is important. There are environmental refugees as a result of the lack of clean water. There is an increasing population globally (7.2 billion) and therefore an increasing use of water. Climate change will only excavate this situation and the access to water varies throughout the world.

Water companies are able to manipulate the prices of water and exploit its resources.

• The UN stated that 15,000 children die every day because of the lack of sanitation.
• We only use 50% of the available water, there is no global water shortage but the rapid population growth leads to a deterioration in clean water quality. This is also because of the uneven distribution of water.
• Fresh water only makes up 2.5% of the Earth’s surface.
• Half of the world’s rivers and lakes are badly polluted.

Water conflict, present and predicted, arises from the WATER GAP (this is produced by the rising demand for water and the diminishing supply of water), the existence of water-surplus and water-deficit areas and the competition between two different and often incompatible users for the same water resources

The geography of water supply

The hydrological cycle

It is a closed system that globally the hydrological system is closed. In a river, it is an open system.

Threats to the hydrological cycle

1. URBANISATION -this decreases the surface runoff time (through the drainage system) which enables water to return to the rivers/oceans. It is much quicker and so there is a higher possibility of flood risk. They cannot follow the normal system because of the impermeable layer of rock. There is a higher risk of evaporation.
2. AFFORESTATION-this increases the surface runoff time (if previously deforestation occurs) and so allows the continual process of the hydrological cycle.
3. DEFORESTATION-this prevents green water which is the accumulation of water on the leaves and branches of vegetation. This means that there is more surface run off and again a higher flood risk as 100% of water lands on the ground. It means there is less evapotranspiration.
4. CLIMATE CHANGE-there will be a higher rate of evapotranspiration because of the increased temperature of the oceans/rivers and so there may be a possible higher rate of the hydrological cycle and so possibly a higher flood risk as the cycle is sped up.

POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION –the amount of evapotranspiration and transpiration that can occur given a sufficient supply of water and actual evapotranspiration may, therefore, be much lower if the water is not available.

 

Physical influences on water supply and scarcity

ARID/SEMI ARID-this describes conditions where rainfall is less than 250mm and 500mm of precipitation per year respectively.

Geology

PERMEABLE-water passes through the rock. Permeable rocks are known as aquifers.

AQUIFERS-this is an underground store of groundwater in porous rock. Water is extracted from subterranean stores mainly by wells and boreholes.

Types of permeable rock include porous (numerous pores to fill and store water) and pervious (allows water to flow along bedding planes and down joints within the rock.

IMPERMEABLE-water is not allowed to pass through them and so produces more surface runoff.

How does this affect water supply?

The rocks underlying a river basin are impermeable; water will remain on the surface as runoff, creating a high drainage density. Permeable soils and rocks such as limestone may allow water to pass into underground drainage systems. Aquifers such as chalk and porous sandstones can store vast quantities of water underground, e.g. the Ogallala aquifer, in the High Plains region of the USA. Groundwater may create springs or provide the base flows of rivers.

Climate

• Equatorial and tropical areas have a higher rainfall than temperate areas.
• High altitude areas have ice reserves released in late spring.
• Monsoon areas have one main peak, whereas, equatorial areas have two peaks.
• Tropical areas experience recurring drought.

River systems

They transport water and the relationship between water inputs and outputs is known as WATER BALANCE.

Generally, river flow increases downstream as tributaries (a river or stream flowing into a larger river or lake) feed into the main river, though high temperatures can lead to considerable water loss by evaporation. Seasonal variations in discharge produce various and distinct river regimes.

RIVER REGIMES-The regime of a river is expected to have a seasonal pattern of discharge during the year. This is due to factors such as climate, local geology and human interaction.

Case study: Colorado Basin, USA

• Los Angeles has the capacity to hold 1 million people but the population is supposed to rise to 22 million.

History of the Colorado basin

• 1908-US Supreme Court recognised Native American Rights.
• 1922-The Colorado Compact divided the river into two basins: upper and lower.
• 1944-Mexico was allocated a 1 million acre feet share.
• 1963-US Supreme Court split water share into 32% Arizona and 49% Arizona.
• 2016-California must make a 20% reduction in water consumption.

Key facts about the area

• Supplies water to 7 US States and Mexico.
• 60% of Southern California’s water comes from the Colorado River.
• It is an arid state with high evapotranspiration rates.
• By 2050, in Colorado there will be approximately 9.5 million people and so will further pressurise this area of water if management does not occur.
• This area ‘belongs’ to 7 states but is not equally distributed.

Reasons for water conflicts

Climate: rain from the North Pacific Ocean causes the frontal system and provides one of the major inputs. There is surface runoff as a result of the rainfall on the mountains.

Geology: 1/3 of California’s fresh water comes from groundwater sources: aquifers. There is high pressure which blocks moist air currents reaching Southern California.

River systems: there is a bi-seasonal regime because the flow varies as a result of tropical systems causing large floods in the lower basins and change in El Nino and La Nina.

Key stakeholders in the Colorado basin

1. Farmers in lower basin and they require irrigation.
2. Los Angeles City Council requires water and an extra 20%.
3. Average American citizens.
4. Indigenous tribal groups are owed water and 5% are consumed.
5. Mexican government are given 10% of the Colorado Basin, this is the law in 1944.

Global imbalance between water demand and supply

• The access to safe clean water is defined as a human right by the UN.
• 2/3 of the world’s population live in areas with just 25% of the global annual rainfall.

This is known as the WORLD WATER GAP– the disproportional imbalance between water demand and water supply.

WATER VULNERABILITY-this is where water consumption reaches less than 2500m³ per person.

WATER STRESS-demand for water exceeds the amount available during a certain period, or when poor quality restricts its use. This is where water consumption reaches less than 1700m³ per person.

Why is water stressed?

Agriculture

Agriculture uses a major volume of water; this will increase as the demand for food supplies increase as a result of the exponential population growth.

While water shortage and irrigation systems do make agriculture more productive, they can be wasteful of water. Poor management of these systems can lead to problems of evaporation, salinisation and fertiliser pollution.

Industry

Hydroelectric Power (HEP) uses a large volume of water, yet this water is available to other uses once it has passed through the turbines. Industry is more efficient user than agriculture; however, there are significant exceptions: paper manufacturing.

Domestic

This is “home use” and is suggested that the global demand is increasing.

Water sources

Water comes from two sources: surface water and aquifers.

Surface water

Rivers, lake and reservoirs provide large amounts of water.

Aquifers

They are underground supplies.

• They are the sole source of drinking water for about a ¼ of the population.

WATER SCARCITY-This is where water consumption reaches less than 1000m³ per person and this can be classified into physical scarcity and economic scarcity:

PHYSICAL WATER SCARCITY-the shortages occur when demand exceeds supply.

• Global water consumption increased by 600% in the last century.

ECONOMIC WATER SCARCITY-this is when people simply cannot afford water, even when it is readily available.

• More than 1 billion people, in areas such as sub-Saharan Africa use less than 25% of the river’s resources.

Water security crisis

The World Water Forum (2000) established water security as a key issue for the 21^st century.

In Asia and Pacific, there is:

1. The level of bacterial waste from humans is 10 x greater than recommended levels.
2. Agriculture accounts for 90% of freshwater in South Asia.

In Africa, there is:

1. 25 African countries will face either water stress or water scarcity by 2025.
2. There is a lack of groundwater protection from agriculture uses makes up 88% of total water usage.

In Latin America, there is:

1. Poor sanitation because only 2% of the sewage produced is treated.

Political crisis

The Central African Republic (CAR) highlights the effects of politics on water security. There is no shortage of rainfall in the CAR; fighting governmental forces has led to thousands of people to seek shelter in the Bush. The Bush has polluted streams and rivers; in addition they have faulty wells.

Access crisis

There is a correlation between wealth and access to safe water and sanitation; this is because of the lack of investment in basic water infrastructure.

Water access can often be a problem:

• 90% of all countries share water basins with at least one of their neighbours.
• In Rajasthan, India, the Coca-Cola Company was accused of extracting so much water in the area that the surrounding area suffered, farmers were forced to dig deep wells and buy bottled water.
• In Bolivia, the prices charged by French-owned water companies were too high for the locals and 200,000 people chose not to be connected the supply.

40,000 people in Detroit, USA were too poor to pay their water bills and resorted to illegal tapping.

Health and wellbeing crisis

The Millennium Development Goals included a target to halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation.

• The WHO (World Health Organisation) stated that every dollar spent on improving sanitation generates an economic benefit of $7.

Quality crisis

Indonesia’s economic development and its manufacture of cheap goods to sell to the USA and Europe has led to pollution of the water supplies.

• The Citarium River, West Java carries the waste from 9 million people and the farm/factories.

-Salinity.

-Waterlogging

This stops air getting to the soil which drowns the plant.

Human impacts on water availability

Pollution

This can increase water stress because of the pollution caused by human activity:

• Sewage disposal-this often pollutes the water and prevents healthy, safe water drinking. This often leads to water-borne diseases such as typhoid, hepatitis and cholera.
  • According to the WHO, by 2020, in developing countries the polluted water is to cause 135 million deaths.
• Chemical fertilisers-they are used by farmers in order to increase the production of plants, yet they contaminate river and ground water. Sewage and fertilisers add nutrients to the water and increase the growth of algae downstream which removes the oxygen from the water- this is known as eutrophication.
• Dams-they often trap sediment in reservoirs, which reduces floodplain fertility and the flow of nutrients from rivers into seas. This may damage the coastal fish stocks and prevent beach formation-this is known as long shore drift, this can lead to further erosion.
• Industrial waste-much of industrial waste is pumped into the rivers, oceans and other waterways-often untreated- heavy metals such as lead and mercury become concentrated in rivers.

Over abstraction

 

The UN Water Co-operation facility

• They mediate the disputes between countries sharing a single basin.
• Prevents water wars.
• Allows a fair share of water and often tries to make this equal.

Key players of the UN Water Co-operation Facility

Key players	Roles
The United Nations	World Water Assessment Programme was established in 2000 to monitor the changes in demand for water and the likelihood of international tensions.
World Trade Organisation	It encourages countries to open up their economies to private investment in return for debt relief. As countries follow the WTO guidelines, control of their water infrastructures is being transferred to multinational companies.
Transnational corporations	Water supplies may be improved, but the local consumers have to pay for it.

Areas of potential water wars

• The conflict over the River Nile- Egypt vs. Uganda vs. Ethiopia vs. Sudan.
  • 85% of the water comes from other countries upstream.
• The conflict over the Brahmaputra River- China vs. India.
• Euphrates and Tigris rivers- Turkey vs. Syria vs. Iraq.

The risks of water insecurity

Examiner’s tip: in this and other topics you should learn some case studies, but use the information from them selectively and as part of a wider discussion. To simply repeat one of your case studies will not answer the question in front of you.

Problems of the water supply

Secure water supplies are essential to economic development: they provide irrigation and food production, manufacturing and energy generation. However, the development, extraction and use of water resources can lead to environmental and supply problems. The negative consequences include desalination and depletion of underground aquifers.

 

Case study: the Aral Sea

Typical mistake: many candidates think that the Aral Sea was a source of freshwater, but as waters were brackish even when it was unaffected by engineering.

Water conflicts

When the demand for water overtakes supply and several stakeholders wish to use the same resource, there is a potential for conflict. Competing demands for water for irrigation, power generation, domestic use, recreation and conservation can also create tension both between and within countries.

Conflict is often more likely in developing countries because water is vital and they struggle to feed their growing populations and promote industrial development, and they have to cope with a legacy of good water management.

• The UN reports there are around 300 potential water conflicts around the world as rivers, lakes and aquifers struggle to provide sufficient supplies for neighbouring countries.

What is the difference between surface water and ground water?

Surface water

This is through the use of rivers and basins, e.g. the Colorado basin.

Ground water

This occurs through the use of mountain aquifers.

Many of the subterranean aquifers ‘straddle’ international boundaries. The shared groundwater usage is complex.

• Supplies are underground so it is difficult to understand the problem as it takes years for an effect to show.
• It is difficult to negotiate an equitable and reasonable share for each nation to exploit; it is often the extent is not mapped and nobody knows   owns what.
• More developed nations use the groundwater more efficiently because they have deeper wells and more efficient pumps.

MENA region (Middle East and North Africa)

• 5% of the world’s population.
• 1% of the 2.5% freshwater.
• 500m³ a year in 2025.
• Most water-stressed region of the world.
• Most countries in the region are considered either arid or hyper-arid, and many countries withdraw 100% of their renewable resources.
• Within 10 years, Yemen won’t have enough water to supply their demand if they don’t manage their water usage.

Why are freshwater supplies disappearing?

1. Demand-groundwater pumping.
2. Surface water runoff through evapotranspiration because of the climate.
3. Droughts, e.g. 2007.

Saudi Arabia

Irrigation is well-known for its high water consumption; they have long being grown wheat and other crops in a desert that was not made for agriculture.

• The Saudis have more than 225 relatively small dams to collect water for storage and irrigation, yet they only capture about 0.9km³ a year.
• Saudi Arabia consumes 24km³ of water with 21km³ used for irrigation.

The country’s underground aquifers also feed the water supplies of Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.

To solve some of its issues surrounding water conflict, it has resorted to using VIRTUAL WATER.

VIRTUAL WATER-this is where the country buys another countries’ water to use their other supplies and this is used in order to protect the countries’ diminishing water resources.

Libya

• The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer system is the world’s largest collection of aquifers with some containing 150,000km³ of water, this stretches over Libya, Egypt, Chad and Sudan.

Libya has tried for several decades to build the ‘Great Man-Made River Project’ to bring this water (which is located in large parts of the Sahara desert) to bring this water to its coastal cities and many other areas. Its goal is to transform Libya from a desert region into an agricultural powerhouse.

Egypt

It would like to develop the arid western desert region.

As Lake Nasser’s water is replenished from the Nile River, the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer is known as FOSSIL WATER.

FOSSIL WATER-this is a non-renewable deposit dating back to a distant era where the Sahara was not a desert but had a humid climate.

Water geopolitics

As countries compete for water resources, international agreements and treaties have to be drawn up on how best to manage shared water supplies. There are pacts about water supply; distribution and use are in place among the major rivers.

As water resources take a greater significance, new treaties need to be negotiated using water diplomacy. International laws, however, are unable to provide a clear solution to trans-boundary water disputes, except where navigable waterways are involved.

Under the Helsinki rules, there is general agreement that international treaties must include concepts such as equitable use within a drainage basin when devising criteria for water sharing including:

• Natural factors-rainfall volume, water sources and share of drainage basin.
• Downstream impacts-restricting flow, lowering water tables and pollution.
• Social and economic needs-population size, development and welfare.
• Prior use-past and future use.
• Efficiency-avoiding waste and mismanagement of water.
• Dependency-are alternative water sources available to the country?

Current laws:

• Upstream countries-assert their right to territorial sovereignty (it is our water, so it’s our decision is how it is used).
• Downstream countries-assert their right through the territorial integrity (it is our right to receive the same volume and quantity of water).

Water transfers

This involves the diversion of water from one drainage basin to another either by diverting the river itself or by constructing a large canal to carry available water from the area of surplus to the area of deficit.

Currently there are many large-scale water transfer schemes in operation. The engineering itself and the actual water transfers have been successful but there are many environmental and social disadvantages.

What are the issues of the water transfer schemes if circumstances changed, i.e. through climate change or economic development?

Source area	Receiving area
Flow drops by 60% as a result of diversion/transfer.	Availability of water supply leads to greater use.
River experiences low flow and becomes polluted and the impact on the ecosystem’s salinity increasing.	Increased use for development.
Climate change can combine with lower flows and so leads to water scarcity.	Promotes unsustainable irrigated farming by agri-businesses.
	Nitrate eutrophication, salination and ecosystem destruction. Pollution transfer.

Case study: China

• More than 300 million people without clean drinking water in China.
• 70% of China’s rivers and lakes are polluted.
• China’s economic growth is 10% a year.

How will China be affected by climate change?

Major rivers in China, Vietnam and India are fed by seasonal melting of mountain glaciers and every summer, surface runoff occurs off the Himalayas and the Tian Mountains. They create hydrological stores which feed into the Yangtze and Yellow river.

As long as new snow falls onto glaciers each winter, cities in Asia are guaranteed a sustainable water supply, however, a warmer climate (as a result of climate change) and the disappearance of mountain glaciers could lead to water insecurity and although in the short-term melt water will increase but in the long-term, this could lead to water shortages due to the lack of surface runoff.

How will China be affected by urbanisation and globalisation?

By 2025, China will have 221 cities with populations over 1 million, and 8 of these will be megacities (10 million people). The sustainability of these growing cities will be further threatened by a lack of water security because of the increasing demand and many major rivers are fed by seasonal melt water run offs from major glaciers in the region, e.g. the Himalayas plateau.

China’s South-to-North water transfer scheme

The Yellow river is necessary for drinking and irrigation of the agriculture (mainly rice paddies).

Air pollution has forced the Chinese government to close smaller factories to maintain the quantity and quality. This is a result of rapid urbanisation.

It will take 50 years to complete, it will cost up to $100 billion and it will transfer approximately 50 billion m³ of water per year from the water-secure south to the drought stricken north via 1300km of canals linking the Yangtze to the Yellow Huai and Hai rivers.

 

Positives	Negatives
Improves the demand for water supply because of the uneven distribution of water quantity.	They need management because of the chemicals: arsenic, lead, cadmium and chromium have been found in the rice and vegetables because of the irrigation.
Allows water to reach arid areas.	Farmers will lose further demand of water through irrigation.
	Further pressure on the areas because of the demand for water.

Managing water insecurity in Turkey’s GAP

• There are regional variations in rainfall.
• Shortages in the main cities of Istanbul and Anatolia.

The Gap project (South Eastern Anatolia) costs $32 billion. It attempts to improve Anatolia’s income which is the least developed part of Turkey. By 2015, Turkey hopes to increase the production of cash crops and improve socio-economic factors: better education, healthcare, jobs and prevent the migration of young people from the region – BRAIN DRAIN.

Losers of Turkey’s GAP

Syria and Iraq, this involves damming of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers which provides both countries with their main supply of water. The production of the dam Ilisu has provided controversy for neighbouring countries and could lead to conflict. Turkey has agreed to release water from Illisu (to Syria and not Iraq) at a rate agreed by international law.

Aims of the GAP

• To support 9% of the population
• Help the south eastern Anatolian economy by 400%.
• Provide 22% of Turkey’s electricity through hydroelectric power.
• Diversify agriculture.
• Stop the migration of young people from the region.

Case study: Israel

• It consumes 500 billion litres more water than it receives naturally.
• Population is growing by 1.9% a year.
• Droughts are becoming increasingly common.
• Israel consumes more water than any other country in the Middle East.

Water pathways are under threat!

Israel claims most of the water and denies Palestinians access providing conflicts.

Sources of water

1. They import water from Turkey.
2. Recycling sewage plants.

Management of Israel’s waters

Limited supplies

• Recycling sewage water for irrigation.
• Demanding prices to reflect the cost of supply and ecosystem management.
• Better water treatment plants.

Acquiring new supplies

• Import 50 million m³ of water from Turkey.
• Piping sea water from the Red Sea and Mediterranean.

Expanding virtual water supplies

• Import water-rich foods and this saves vast amounts of water.
• Virtual water is related to trading water.

Case study: Africa

• 25% of African countries will either face water stress or water scarcity by 2025.

Water in Sub-Saharan Africa is in short supply; this will threaten agriculture which accounts for 47.7% of Ethiopia’s GDP.

What is Africa’s water future?

Challenges

• Increase in the population which will lead to problems of access to safe water and sanitation.
• Raising people out of poverty.
• Managing and maintaining water supply.

The conflicts between the Nile basin

Ethiopia

85% of the Nile’s water flow originates from the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. Their economy is emerging after years of civil war and famine.

Egypt

This is pressure from other growing countries.

Sudan

They plan to exploit the Nile‘s river to increase irrigation

Water conflicts and the future

Scenarios for water usage	Water changes by 2025	Wider impacts
Business as usual	·       Water scarcity will reduce food production ·       Consumption of water will rise by over 50% ·       Household water use will increase by 70% ·       Industrial demand will increase in developing countries	·       Developing countries will become reliant on food imports and experience increased hunger and malnutrition ·       In sub-Saharan Africa, grain imports will more than triple ·       In places such as China and India, users will pump water faster than aquifers can recharge.
Water crisis	·       Global water consumption would increase further, mostly go to irrigation ·       Worldwide demand for domestic water would fall ·       Demand for industrial water would increase by 33% over the business as usual scenario	·       Food production would decline and food prices would increase rapidly. ·       In developing countries, malnutrition and food insecurity would increase ·       Dam building would decline because of fewer potential sites and aquifers would fail ·       Conflict between and within countries would increase
Sustainable water	·       Global water consumption and industrial water use would have to fall considerably ·       Environmental flows could be increased ·       Global rain-fed crop yields increase due to improvements in water harvesting ·       Agricultural and household water prices might have to double in developed countries and triple in the developing world	·       Food production could increase slightly and shifts occur on where it is grown ·       Prices could fall slowly on food production ·       Government, international donors and farmers need to increase investment in crop research ·       Excessive pumping is unsustainable

 

Water players and decision makers

The process of weighing up the motivations and perceptions of players is called VALUE ANALYSIS. It is an important factor in the evaluation of issues and in the decision-making.

Category	Players
Political	1.     International organisations (e.g. the UN cooperation facility) are responsible for the Millennium Development Goals. 2.     Governmental departments. 3.     Regional and local councils.
Economic	1.     World Bank and IMF fund mega projects and ensure legislations in place for the trans boundary schemes. 2.     TNCs and businesses.
Social	1.     Individuals. 2.     Residents. 3.     Consumers. 4.     Land owners. 5.     Farmers. 6.     Health officials who try to ensure safe water. 7.     NGOs, e.g. Water Aid to develop sustainable water schemes in developing countries.
Environmental	1.     Conservationists. 2.     Scientists and planners who develop new schemes. 3.     BINGO (Big International Non-Governmental Organisations), e.g. WWF who try to influence World Water Policy. 4.     UNESCO.

 

Responses to rising demands

Managing water supplies will require action at a variety of levels, ranging from large-scale projects is funded by governments and agencies such as the World Bank, down to changing individual consumers’ attitudes to water use at a local level.

Hard engineering projects

• 845,000 dams in the world of which 5,000 are mega dams.
• 2/3 of all surface freshwater is obstructed.
• Dams are considered unsustainable, e.g. the Three Gorges Dam, and over half of the dams are primarily used by irrigated agriculture.
• Trends have occurred in large-scale water transfer schemes where they have had huge environmental impacts on both the source and receiving areas.
• The rate of desalination is growing at an exponential in water stressed areas. New technology (e.g. osmosis membrane) filters salt from brackish water, which leads to lower costs, however, filtering sea water is very costly.

Water conservation

WATER CONSERVATION-this involves reducing the amount of water used (i.e. by demand) rather than trying to increase water supplies. In a world where the supply is finite, this is an important strategy.

Agriculture– sprinkler and surface flood irrigation is steadily being replaced by modern spray technology and more advanced drip irrigation, which uses less water.

Industrial water-the conservation of industrial water is about reuse (grey water) and waste water can frequently be recycled using filters and chemicals.

Water companies-they carry out projects to cut down on leakage from broken pipes.

Domestic use-the compulsory provision of water meters has made consumers more careful about water usage.

Low-income countries-there is a number of projects available for low-income countries, e.g. through NGOs such as Water Aid.

Restoring damaged wetlands-this is restoring them to their natural state can renew vital water stores; this is shown in case studies such as the Aral Sea- the world’s largest conservation project.

 

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